The Cost-Of-Living Crisis and Suicide Rates
Abstract
Abstract: Background: The cost-of-living crisis may be contributing to suicide rates, but this has not been adequately tested. Aims: We aimed to determine whether the cost-of-living crisis is associated with suicide rates in multiple countries and areas-within-countries. Method: We sourced country- and area-within-country-level monthly suicide data at a minimum from January 1, 2019, to December 31, 2022 (and at a maximum from January 1, 2016, to June 30, 2023), and population denominator and monthly headline consumer price index (CPI) data. We calculated the yearly change in inflation as the percentage change in CPI for one month versus the equivalent month in the previous year. We estimated associations between yearly change in inflation (lagged by one month) and suicide rates for each country and area-within-country, using autoregressive negative binomial regression. We summarized results using weighted means. Results: We obtained data on 1,372,994 suicides from 54 countries. At the country-level, for every 1.0% increase in yearly inflation in the previous month, there was an average 0.2% increase in suicide rates. The association was strongest in those aged 30–49 and 50–69; for every 1.0% increase in yearly inflation in the previous month, there were 0.3% and 0.6% increases in suicide rates for these age-groups, respectively. This pattern held for males in these age-groups, with increases of the same magnitude, and for females aged 50–69, with a 0.8% increase. At the area-within-country-level, the picture was even starker. Limitations: Study limitations include: the ecological design; the single measure of inflation; potential variations in suicide data quality; lack of representation by low-and-middle-income countries (LMICS); lack of availability of sex, age and sex/age breakdowns for some countries and areas-within-countries; and potential issues with multiple testing. Conclusions: There is an association between the cost-of-living crisis and suicide rates internationally. Public and social policies that improve people’s circumstances are critical.
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Authors: Jane Pirkis, Sangsoo Shin, Leo J. Roberts, Vikas Arya, Martín Agrest, Pablo Analuisa Aguilar, Louis Appleby, S. M. Yasir Arafat, Sara Elena Ardila-Gómez, Ella Arensman, José Luís Ayuso‐Mateos, Yatan Pal Singh Balhara, Puimee Bandara, Jason R. Bantjes, Anna Baran, Chittaranjan Behera, José Manoel Bertolote, Daniela Bonanno, Guilherme Luiz Guimaraes Borges, Michael J. C. Bray, Petrana Brečić, Eric D. Caine, Raffaella Calati, Manuel Canal‐Rivero, Vladimir Carli, Giulio Castelpietra, Lai Fong Chan, Shu-Sen CHANG, Maria Coss-Guzmán, David Crompton, Marko Ćurković, Rakhi Dandona, Eva De Jaegere, Diego De Leo, E Deisenhammer, Marcos DelPozo‐Baños, Nash Denic, Jennifer M. Dmetrichuk, Jeremy Dwyer, Emma Therése Eliasson, Annette Erlangsen, Jeremy Samuel Faust, Michele Fornaro, Sarah A. Fortune, Guendalina Gentile, Marie‐Claude Geoffroy, Renske Gilissen, Madelyn Schwartz Gould, Keith E Hawton, Franziska Holz, Hye-In Hong, Nurashikin Ibrahim, Madeleine Jaeger, Ann Mary John, Nancy Jong, Navneet Kapur, Alexandr Kasal, Murad Khan, Olivia J Kirtley, Duleeka W. Knipe, Kairi Kõlves, Sarah C. Kölzer, Stuart Leske, Fabio Madeddu, David Mais, Anjum Memon, Ellenor Mittendorfer‐Rutz, Lauren L. Moran, Paul Sasha Nestadt, Thomas Niederkrotenthaler, Emma Nielsen, Raihan Khamal Noor, Merete Nordentoft, Herwig Oberlerchner, Rory C. O’Connor, Rainer Papsdorf, Timo Partonen, Michael Robert Phillips, Gwendolyn Portzky, Ping Qin, Daniel Radeloff, Shane Randell, Andreas Reif, Christine Reif-Leonhard, Mohsen Rezaeian, Pablo Richly, Nayda Román-Vázquez, Saška Roškar, Grant E. Sara, Karen Scavacini, Barbara Schneider, Ivalu Katajavaara Seidler, Mark Sinyor, Stefano Tambuzzi, Lay San Too, Ellen Townsend, Sarantis Tsiaplias, Michiko Ueda, Daniel Vásquez, Danuta Wasserman
Institutions: Brigham and Women's Hospital, University of Washington, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, The University of Queensland, University of Rochester, Karolinska Institutet, Johns Hopkins University, The University of Sydney, The University of Melbourne, Harvard University, KU Leuven, University of Oxford, University of Bristol, University of Manchester, University of Nottingham, University of Toronto, UNSW Sydney, Ghent University, University of Copenhagen, University College Cork, Universidade Estadual Paulista (Unesp), University of Glasgow, Australian National University, University of Canberra, Public Health Foundation of India, National Taiwan University, Wan Fang Hospital, Taipei Medical University, Johns Hopkins Medicine, University of Warsaw, Universidad de Buenos Aires, Innsbruck Medical University, Universität Innsbruck, Universidad Autónoma de Madrid, Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red de Salud Mental, South African Medical Research Council, University of Oslo, Federico II University Hospital, University of Rochester Medicine, Hospital Universitario Virgen del Rocío, Universidad de Sevilla, Goethe University Frankfurt, Sunnybrook Health Science Centre, McGill University, Columbia University Irving Medical Center, Syracuse University, University Hospital Leipzig, Mersey Care NHS Trust, Griffith University, University of Naples Federico II, All India Institute of Medical Sciences, University of Milan, University of Milano-Bicocca, Swansea University, University Hospital Frankfurt, Medical University of Vienna, Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas, University of Southern Denmark, Universidad de Antioquia, University of Auckland, Rafsanjan University of Medical Sciences, University of Zagreb, Universidad de Las Américas, Karlstad University, University Hospital Centre Zagreb, University of Peradeniya, National Institute of Mental Health, National Institute of Mental Health, Hospital Kuala Lumpur, Instituto de Biomedicina de Sevilla, Public Health Agency of Canada, Ministry of Health, Linnaeus University, Fraunhofer Institute for Translational Medicine and Pharmacology, World Health Organization Regional Office for Europe, Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Finnish Institute for Health and Welfare, Shanghai Mental Health Center, University of Klagenfurt, Aga Khan University, University of Primorska, Office for National Statistics, Mental Health Services, Brighton and Sussex Medical School, Instituto Nacional de Psiquiatría Ramón de la Fuente Muñiz, Behavioral Pharma (United States), Office of the Chief Medical Examiner, Waikato Hospital, National University of the West, Instituto de Investigación Sanitaria del Hospital Universitario de La Princesa, South Asian Clinical Toxicology Research Collaboration, World Health Organization - Denmark, Puerto Rico Department of Health, Government of Newfoundland and Labrador, Danish Research Institute for Suicide Prevention, 113 Zelfmoordpreventie, Korea Foundation, Australian Bureau of Statistics, Instituto Vita Alere, LVR-Klinik Köln, Danish National Institute of Public Health