Extratropical teleconnections in a multi-model ensemble nudged towards the observed QBO
Abstract
The Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO), the dominant mode of interannual variability of monthly-mean zonal winds and temperatures in the equatorial stratosphere, has a significant influence on the circulation in other regions of the stratosphere and troposphere in boreal winter. To better understand these teleconnections, results from twelve models are analysed for three complementary experiments in which the QBO is either internally generated by the models (free-running), nudged towards the observed QBO, or nudged towards the observed climatology. For the multi-model ensemble mean we assess how well the free-running experiment captures the observed teleconnections, and whether the simulated teleconnections improve when the models are nudged to have a more realistic QBO. The observed relationship between the QBO phase and the strength of the boreal winter Polar Night Jet (PNJ) is weakly captured by the free-running experiment. The PNJ response is larger when the models are nudged towards the observed QBO, primarily because nudging reduces the bias in the QBO amplitude, resulting in a larger proportion of the models exhibiting a stronger QBO-PNJ relationship. Both free-running and nudged-QBO experiments capture a small and marginally significant increase in Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) frequency during the QBO-easterly phase relative to the QBO-westerly phase. Neither experiment captures the observed QBO influence on the timings of SSWs during winter nor the QBO teleconnection to the North Atlantic Oscillation. Nudging the QBO does, however, improve its influence on the latitudinal profile of the North Pacific sub-tropical jet and strength of tropical precipitation. We find that a more realistic representation of the QBO is beneficial for certain teleconnections, but their effective simulation likely depends on how well the underlying model processes respond to the QBO.
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Authors: Martin B. Andrews, Neal Butchart, James A. Anstey, Ewa Bednarz, Dillon Elsbury, Jorge L. García-Franco, Vinay Kumar, Froila M. Palmeiro, Natasha E. Trencham, Kohei Yoshida, Zhaoyang Chai, Dong-Chan Hong, Kai Huang, Aleena M. Jaison, Yoshio Kawatani, Jeff R. Knight, Pu Lin, François Lott, Yixiong Lu, Hiroaki Naoe, Scott Osprey, Jadwiga H. Richter, Federico Serva, Seok‐Woo Son, Qi Tang, Shingo Watanabe, Jinbo Xie
Institutions: Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Columbia University, University of Oxford, University of Colorado Boulder, Hokkaido University, Tohoku University, University of Delhi, George Mason University, Seoul National University, National Centre for Atmospheric Science, Environment and Climate Change Canada, National Research Council, Princeton University, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research, Met Office, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, China Meteorological Administration, Japan Meteorological Agency, Meteorological Research Institute, Institute of Structure of Matter, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, CMCC Foundation - Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change, Istituto di Scienze Marine del Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche, NSF NCAR Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, NOAA Chemical Sciences Laboratory, High Meadows Environmental Institute, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique, NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory