NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory

Subseasonal forecast improvements from sea ice concentration data assimilation in the Antarctic

Abstract. This study evaluates the impact of sea ice concentration (SIC) data assimilation (DA) on subseasonal forecasts of Antarctic sea ice by comparing reforecast experiment suites initialized from two sets of initial conditions (ICs): one with SIC DA and the other without. Th...

Steric‐Setup Effects on US East Coast Sea‐Level Change

Abstract The extent to which coastal sea levels co‐vary with open‐ocean variability is explored through evaluation of a balanced dynamics framework relating sea level with pressure, density, and velocity along the continental shelf and slope seafloor. Using high‐resolution region...

Middle to late Holocene cooling and increased zonal asymmetry in the mid-latitude North Atlantic

Sea Surface Temperature reconstructions derived from alkenone biomarker (SST-alk) reveal a cooling trend in the North Atlantic during the late Holocene (the last 5000 years), contrary to the warming simulated by transient climate models driven by 20 ppm increase in greenhouse gas...

Space-time signatures of surface warming accelerations since 1970

Abstract With record-breaking temperatures over 2023-2024 and extreme events observed around the world, there is currently a debate in the scientific literature and media as to whether global warming is accelerating. Here we address this question from a regional perspective, dete...

Extratropical teleconnections in a multi-model ensemble nudged towards the observed QBO

The Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO), the dominant mode of interannual variability of monthly-mean zonal winds and temperatures in the equatorial stratosphere, has a significant influence on the circulation in other regions of the stratosphere and troposphere in boreal winter. To...

Wind‐Driven Circulation Feedbacks Offset Tropical Geoengineered Sea Salt Emissions

Abstract Using a NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory coupled atmosphere–ocean (CM4) comprehensive model, we employ simulations of enhanced, geoengineered sea salt aerosol (SSA) emissions in the tropics to examine the circulation response to idealized marine cloud brighteni...