Met Office

Optimizing Gaussian process emulation and generalized additive model fitting for rapid, reproducible earth system model analysis

Abstract. Causes of model uncertainty in complex modeling systems can be identified using large perturbed-parameter ensembles (PPEs), combined with statistical emulators to increase sample size and enable variance-based sensitivity analyses and observational constraint. In global...

New insights into decadal climate variability in the North Atlantic revealed by data-driven dynamical models

Abstract. The Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) are the dominant modes of oceanic and atmospheric variability in the North Atlantic, respectively, and are key sources of predictability from seasonal to decadal timescales. However, th...

Reduced Complexity Model Intercomparison Project phase 3: experimental protocol for coordinated constraining and evaluation of reduced-complexity models

Abstract. Reduced-Complexity Models (RCMs) are a critical tool for synthesising climate science knowledge and providing climate projections for a wide range of emissions scenarios. The Reduced-Complexity Model Intercomparison Project (RCMIP) provides a framework for the coordinat...