Met Office

Interacting effects of droplet number and ice formation processes on mixed-phase cold-air outbreak clouds

Abstract. Shallow, mixed-phase clouds associated with cold-air outbreak (CAO) events are natural laboratories for studying mixed-phase cloud processes which are important for estimating cloud-phase feedback in the warming climate. Recent studies show that CAO clouds are sensitive...

Super Warm Early Eocene Simulations With HadGEM3‐GC31‐LL

Abstract The early Eocene Climatic Optimum (EECO; 53.3–49.1 million years ago) represents the period of greatest sustained warmth in the Cenozoic (last 66 million years), with proxy‐data indicating global‐mean temperatures 10–16°C above preindustrial and atmospheric concentration...

Antarctic sea ice response to meltwater due to Antarctic ice sheet mass loss in a multi-model ensemble

Abstract. We present the first multi-model study of the Antarctic sea ice response to enhanced meltwater due to dynamic mass loss from the Antarctic ice sheet. This meltwater flux (and its future increase under global warming) is not included in the most recent state-of-the-art c...

Improved seasonal hydrological forecasting for Great Britain

Great Britain's variable maritime climate has until relatively recently limited the utility of seasonal hydrological forecasts. The latest generations of seasonal atmospheric forecasting systems have created new opportunities to improve flow forecasting across Great Britain, such...

New Constraint on Future Ocean Heat Uptake Revealed by Considering Model Spread of Radiative Forcing

Abstract Radiative forcing is the fundamental driver of ocean heat uptake ; however, its contribution to intermodel spread in has not been quantified. We address this gap by leveraging a new set of CMIP6 experiments that diagnoses time‐varying for the first time in 11 models. Amo...

The Climate Model Output Rewriter (CMOR)

Features User input files can now override the source, experiment, and institution global-attribute values when those attributes are not required by the controlled vocabulary. (#988, #995) Added CMIP7 site dimension examples for Python, Fortran, and C, including their generated N...

The Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project (CFMIP) contribution to CMIP7

Cloud processes constitute one of the key uncertainties for climate change projections. The fourth iteration of the Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project, CFMIP4, contributes to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 7 (CMIP7), by providing a set of global climate...

Intra‐Seasonal Variability of Serial Clustering of Severe European Winter Windstorms

Abstract Clustering of severe European winter windstorms causes large economic loss and social‐environmental impacts. We present a detailed analysis of the intra‐seasonal variability of clustering of severe European winter windstorms based on ERA5 reanalysis, with the focus on im...

Extratropical teleconnections in a multi-model ensemble nudged towards the observed QBO

The Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO), the dominant mode of interannual variability of monthly-mean zonal winds and temperatures in the equatorial stratosphere, has a significant influence on the circulation in other regions of the stratosphere and troposphere in boreal winter. To...

Western amazon 2020 extreme heatwave

Abstract Between September and November 2020, an extreme climate event characterized by the co-occurrence of severe drought, extreme heat stress, widespread burning, and respiratory health impacts affected southwestern Amazonia. This study investigated the event using an integrat...

RSEs as trainers – the who, why and how of providing digital research skills training

RSEs often provide training for researchers and dRTPs at their local institution in the digital research skills used in their own work. These courses cover a diverse range of topics, from beginners' language courses, to software architecture and efficiency, to specialised tools a...

Following Scrum with part-time teams: Experiences of delivering high-quality Git and GitHub documentation for Met Office employees, partners and collaborators

The Met Office has relied on Subversion and Trac for research software version control and issue and experiment management for over 20 years. In June 2023, the Science Git Migration Project was launched to support the widespread and business-critical transition to Git and GitHub....

Future fire weather projections show the importance of mitigation and adaptation for dynamic fire management

Abstract. Understanding future shifts in fire weather (FW) risk across peak-season, transitional, and off-season periods is crucial for adapting fire preparation and management to climate change. Fire management planning depends not only on reducing fire risk through climate chan...

Refining the Simulation of Mixed‐Phase Clouds Over Coastal Antarctica With a Tailored Ice Nucleating Particle Parameterization

Abstract Climate models have substantial biases in downwelling shortwave radiation over the Southern Ocean (SO) and Antarctica, primarily due to their inability to accurately represent the frequent occurrence of low‐level mixed‐phase clouds. Building on the evaluation of the Unif...

The Source of Arctic Precipitation in HadGEM3‐GC5

Abstract Snow and rain are increasing in the Arctic. Climate model projections indicate a 50% increase in precipitation by the end of the century. This increase is driven by increased local evaporation following reduced sea ice coverage alongside enhanced global evaporation and t...

Sea Level Emulator Intercomparison Project (SLEIP) Phase 1: Assessing emulated multi-century global mean sea level projections

Abstract. Simplified sea level modelling approaches calibrated against reference data, also referred to as sea level emulators, can explore future sea level rise and associated uncertainties with low computational cost. Here, we introduce the Sea Level Emulator Intercomparison Pr...

Assessing financial risk to property portfolios from physical rainfall extremes

Abstract. Physical climate risk from extreme rainfall is often poorly understood by financial investors, potentially extending to pension funds that manage assets of substantial societal importance. There is a growing need for investors to better understand these risks to ensure...

Recent globally synchronous seasonal warm events unprecedented since 850 CE

Spatially synchronous extreme warm events can amplify environmental and societal impacts by affecting multiple regions simultaneously. However, previous studies have largely focused on June–August (JJA) events during the instrumental period, limiting understanding of their season...

Lightning electromagnetic emission location using arrival time differencing ( LEELA ): An introduction to the Met Office's next generation Very Low Frequency lightning location system

Abstract Lightning strikes occur in the atmosphere due to appreciable charge separation in cumulonimbus clouds. The detection of a lightning strike within such clouds is a vital indicator that other hazards such as severe rainfall, hail and aircraft effecting turbulence are also...

Optimizing Gaussian process emulation and generalized additive model fitting for rapid, reproducible earth system model analysis

Abstract. Causes of model uncertainty in complex modeling systems can be identified using large perturbed-parameter ensembles (PPEs), combined with statistical emulators to increase sample size and enable variance-based sensitivity analyses and observational constraint. In global...