NSF NCAR Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory

Propagating meteorological uncertainty in physically based mountain snow modeling

Abstract. Snow estimation in mountainous regions is uncertain because meteorology varies with topography, in situ observations are sparse and biased, and snow models have structural and scale limitations. Probabilistic methods are increasingly recognized as essential for quantify...

Climate mitigation contributes more to population persistence than evolutionary adaptation in a long-lived seabird

Evolutionary rescue–the process by which adaptive evolution prevents population extinction following environmental deterioration –is frequently proposed as a buffer against biodiversity loss under climate change, yet its capacity to alter future population trajectories is rarely...

Extratropical teleconnections in a multi-model ensemble nudged towards the observed QBO

The Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO), the dominant mode of interannual variability of monthly-mean zonal winds and temperatures in the equatorial stratosphere, has a significant influence on the circulation in other regions of the stratosphere and troposphere in boreal winter. To...

Exploring divergent long-term stratospheric aerosol injection scenarios with the G2-SAI and ARISE-hybrid experiments

Abstract. Stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) simulations are often short relative to climatic timescales and conducted against a background that evolves due to changes in anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and other forcings. This can cause challenges in assessing certain...

Significance of Size‐Dependent Hygroscopicity Parameterization for Aerosol‐Cloud Interactions

Abstract Aerosol‐cloud interactions (aerosol indirect effects) are the most significant source of uncertainties in the effective radiative forcing (ERF) due to aerosols which can act as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN). Uncertainties in the indirect effect can result from systemat...