NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research

Propagating meteorological uncertainty in physically based mountain snow modeling

Abstract. Snow estimation in mountainous regions is uncertain because meteorology varies with topography, in situ observations are sparse and biased, and snow models have structural and scale limitations. Probabilistic methods are increasingly recognized as essential for quantify...

The dual effect of urban areas on supercell storms

Abstract. The effect of urban land use on convective storms with deep and persistent rotating updrafts (supercell storms) is systematically investigated using ensembles of idealized numerical simulations. A supercell is simulated over a flat domain containing a circular city surr...

The enhanced capabilities of mid-infrared limb emission sounding to observe stratospheric aerosol injection geoengineering

Abstract. Using a model-based pseudo-reality (PR) future scenario and realistic pseudo-observations (POs) representative for a proposed satellite mission concept (CAIRT – the Changing-Atmosphere Infra-Red Tomography explorer), we analyse the capabilities of a high-spectral-resolu...

Differential Impacts of Proxy Archives on Paleoclimate Reconstruction Performance

Abstract Reconstructing past climates is challenging because pre‐instrumental observations are geographically sparse and proxy records are noisy; data assimilation offers one approach to address these limitations. Although such reconstructions are now widespread, the extent to wh...

Super Warm Early Eocene Simulations With HadGEM3‐GC31‐LL

Abstract The early Eocene Climatic Optimum (EECO; 53.3–49.1 million years ago) represents the period of greatest sustained warmth in the Cenozoic (last 66 million years), with proxy‐data indicating global‐mean temperatures 10–16°C above preindustrial and atmospheric concentration...

Constraints on NO x emission in Thailand using GEMS satellite data

Nitrogen oxides (NOx=NO+NO2) are key pollutants that contribute to ozone and secondary aerosol formation, posing environmental and health risks. Accurate simulation and forecasting of NO x pollution is essential for developing mitigation strategies. Local inventories in Thailand...

Short-lived halogen sources and chemistry in the Community Earth System Model v2 (CESM2-SLH)

The implementation of short-lived halogen (SLH) sources and atmospheric chemistry in the Community Earth System Model v1 (CESM1) allowed to study the influence of SLH chemistry on the oxidative capacity of the atmosphere and, consequently, the Earth's climate. In this manuscript,...

Microphysics and Kinematics of a High Flash Rate Storm With a Bottom‐Heavy Charge Structure

Abstract An atypical thunderstorm with unusual lightning and charge structure characteristics propagated through Cordoba province, Argentina, during the austral warm season in late 2018. This storm exhibited echo tops near 10.5 km, with high lightning activity concentrated at low...

Projected environmental change relevant to whaling activities in Utqiaġvik, Alaska

The Arctic has experienced rapid change which is projected to continue through the 21st century. These environmental changes may impact traditional subsistence hunting activities including bowhead whale hunting. Here, we present the long term sea ice and wind changes over the 20t...

Constraints on the Loss of Hydroperoxymethyl Thioformate (HPMTF) to Marine Clouds Using Aircraft Observations

Abstract The photochemical oxidation of dimethyl sulfide (DMS) by the hydroxyl radical (OH) contributes to the production and growth of particles and cloud condensation nuclei in the marine boundary layer (MBL). DMS oxidized by OH can go on to form a stable intermediate, hydroper...

The North American CORDEX-CMIP6 WRF evaluation run: comparing historical simulations from 25 km to convection-permitting scales

Earth system models (ESMs) provide essential insight into large-scale climate variability and change but often lack the spatial resolution required to represent fine-scale processes critical for regional impacts and adaptation planning. To help address this gap, we present an upd...

The Cold-Air Outbreaks in the Marine Boundary Layer Experiment model-observation intercomparison project (COMBLE-MIP) – Part 1: Model specification, observational constraints, and preliminary findings

Models struggle to represent the coupled microphysical, turbulent and radiative processes within widespread, long-lived marine cold-air outbreak (CAO) cloud fields, contributing to forecast and climate biases. Here we combine ground-based and satellite measurements to initialize...

Climate mitigation contributes more to population persistence than evolutionary adaptation in a long-lived seabird

Evolutionary rescue–the process by which adaptive evolution prevents population extinction following environmental deterioration –is frequently proposed as a buffer against biodiversity loss under climate change, yet its capacity to alter future population trajectories is rarely...

Extreme heat waves favored haboob-generating conditions during the record-breaking “Godzilla” African dust event

Abstract North African dust is frequently transported across the Atlantic to the Caribbean Basin and the U.S.A. in boreal summers, impacting regional weather, climate, and environment. The June 2020 “Godzilla” dust outbreak was the strongest of such events in the last two decades...

Extratropical teleconnections in a multi-model ensemble nudged towards the observed QBO

The Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO), the dominant mode of interannual variability of monthly-mean zonal winds and temperatures in the equatorial stratosphere, has a significant influence on the circulation in other regions of the stratosphere and troposphere in boreal winter. To...

Projected Changes in Wind Hazards From Extreme Extratropical Cyclones in the Northeastern U.S.

Abstract Extratropical Cyclones (ETCs) can produce high‐impact weather in mid‐latitudes, leading to extreme precipitation, winds, and storm surges. Despite the societal and economic impacts of ETCs, gaps remain in our understanding of how ETCs and their related hazards will chang...

Leveraging JEDI for atmospheric composition: a unified framework for evaluating observations and model forecasts

Accurate evaluation of both observations and forecasts is essential for advancing atmospheric composition research and improving operational prediction. Traditionally, this has relied on separate workflows with product-specific preprocessing, often limiting reproducibility and cr...

Impact of high-resolution soil erodibility datasets on dust simulations in WRF-Chem with the GOCART scheme

Abstract. Mineral dust is a major atmospheric aerosol influencing climate, air quality, and human health through radiative and microphysical processes. The Iberian Peninsula is frequently affected by North African dust intrusions, leading to episodic PM10 exceedances that challen...

Hail trajectories under climate change: disentangling the roles of moisture, melting level and updraft kinematics

Abstract Large hail is expected to become more frequent under climate change. However, uncertainties remain because storm dynamics and hail formation are imperfectly captured by environmental hail proxies and in convection-permitting models, which are the two most frequently used...

AI‐Based Regional Emulation for Kilometer‐Scale Dynamical Downscaling

Abstract An AI‐based Limited‐Area Model (LAM) is developed for dynamical downscaling over the Southern Great Plains and the southeastern United States, with strong generalization abilities under diverse boundary conditions. The model is trained using 0.25, 3‐hourly ERA5 as forcin...