The anthropogenic fingerprint on emerging infectious diseases
Abstract
Abstract Emerging infectious diseases are a hallmark of the Anthropocene 1,2 . Human-driven ecosystem changes and human–wildlife–livestock contact can drive the emergence of zoonotic and vector-borne diseases 3–5 , but how much these processes shape landscapes of outbreak risk is poorly understood, beyond a few well-studied systems 6–8 . Here we consolidate 58,319 outbreak event records for 32 diseases and systematically test how 16 hypothesized social and environmental drivers impact outbreak geographies, while accounting for detection and reporting biases. We show that outbreak risks are typically highest in mosaic landscapes where people and livestock live alongside forests and fragmented ecosystems. These combined factors, along with long-term declines in precipitation, share strong impacts across several vector-borne diseases (for example, dengue, Lyme disease and zoonotic arboviruses). By contrast, directly transmitted zoonoses (for example, Ebola and mpox) share few common drivers, and the impacts of most other anthropogenic pressures (for example, deforestation, climate warming and agricultural intensification) vary widely between diseases. Most consistently, the observed geography of outbreaks is shaped by healthcare access: reporting declines by a median of 32% (range across diseases: 1.2–96.7%) for each additional hour’s travel time from a health facility. Our findings underscore that infectious disease spillover and emergence are multi-causal, and that no one-size-fits-all strategy can prevent epidemics and pandemics. Ecosystem-based public health interventions 9 should always follow system-specific evidence, and be paired with greater investment in health systems and One Health pathogen surveillance.
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Authors: Rory Gibb, Sadie J. Ryan, David M. Pigott, María del Pilar Fernández, Renata L. Muylaert, Gregory F. Albery, Daniel J. Becker, Jason K. Blackburn, Hernán Cáceres-Escobar, Michael Celone, Evan A. Eskew, Hannah K. Frank, Barbara A. Han, Erin N. Hulland, Kate E. Jones, Rebecca Katz, Adam J. Kucharski, Direk Limmathurotsakul, Catherine A. Lippi, Joshua Longbottom, Juan Fernando Martinez, Jane P. Messina, Elaine Okanyene Nsoesie, David W. Redding, Daniel Romero-Alvarez, Boris V. Schmid, Stephanie N. Seifert, Anabel Sinchi, Christopher H. Trisos, Michelle Wille, Colin J. Carlson
Institutions: University of Florida, Georgetown University, University of Washington, Columbia University, The University of Sydney, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, Tulane University, University of Oxford, Boston University, Mahidol University, University College London, Wageningen University & Research, Yale University, University of Cape Town, Washington State University, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Mahidol Oxford Tropical Medicine Research Unit, University of Idaho, University of Oklahoma, Trinity College Dublin, Natural History Museum, Universidad Internacional SEK, Peter Doherty Institute, Center for Global Health, Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine, Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Instituto Nacional de Biodiversidad, Oxford Spires Academy, Universidad de las Américas, Cary Institute of Ecosystem Studies, Administración Nacional de Laboratorios e Institutos de Salud