Earth and Planetary Sciences · Atmospheric Science
A study finds that Antarctica is very likely to experience mass loss during the twenty-first century, even under aggressive emissions-reduction scenarios. Under very high emissions, Antarctic ice loss could contribute up to 25.4 centimetres of sea-level rise by 2100, although the estimate remains uncertain.
In the Khiav Chai River watershed in northwest Iran, annual precipitation increased from 1970 to 2022 while streamflow declined. Rainfall became more evenly distributed through the year, but river flow became more concentrated in particular periods, consistent with snow dynamics altering when water reaches the river.
The Northern Patagonian Icefield could retain between 6% and 62% of its current volume by 2200, depending on future emissions. Researchers found that ice loss would accelerate from the middle of this century under climate-change scenarios.
Long ocean waves can bend Antarctic ice shelves, creating stresses that may amplify fractures and contribute to calving. Researchers developed and tested a model that can examine shelves with varied shapes, thicknesses, grounding and wave directions, including the Drygalski Ice Tongue.
Rare underwater observations at a retreating glacier in South Greenland found unexpectedly high biological activity at the point where ice meets the ocean. Zooplankton, fish and other organisms appeared to respond to glacier material, rather than mainly to deeper nutrient-rich water.
Researchers reconstructed how an upstream glacial lake’s outburst triggered the failure of a second lake, devastating Thame Village in Nepal on 16 August 2024. They estimate that the flood released about 600,000 cubic metres of water and reached the village within 22 to 32 minutes.
Water stored beneath Glacier de Bonne Pierre may have contributed to the severe June 2024 flood at La Bérarde in the French Alps, a study finds. The researchers estimate that subglacial barriers could theoretically have held water on the order of 10^5 cubic metres, but observations cannot confirm that such pockets existed or drained.
A climate-model study finds that permafrost can continue thawing and releasing carbon for decades after warming begins to decline. The delay in recovery was larger when peak global warming exceeded 2 °C, although the results come from idealized experiments with one Earth system model.
Rainfall-triggered landslides may become more common in part of southern Italy even as climate projections show generally drier soils. Modeling suggests that changes in rainfall intensity and the moisture left by earlier rain could outweigh the drying trend.
