Rapid increase of climate extremes reveals new areas of concern in Amazonia
Abstract
Abstract Amazonia is highly sensitive to climate extremes, yet we lack an Amazon-wide assessment that examines the spatial-temporal changes in these extreme conditions. We address this within seasons and across the hydrological year, using a quantiles approach that integrates the frequency and magnitude of climate extremes and by linking changes in temperature with evapotranspiration. We show that high temperature extremes and temperature-linked measures of water deficit are both changing at a much faster rate than central trends. The 95 th percentile of maximum temperatures in the driest period increased by 0.49 °C per decade (dec -1 ) compared to 0.21°C dec -1 for the central trend of mean temperatures for the year. Crucially, over 700,000 square kilometres in central-north Amazonia have experienced increases in extreme dry season temperatures ≥ 0.75 °C dec -1 ( ≥ 3.22 °C over 43 years). Adaptation measures for these rapid changes in climate extremes must include preventing the deforestation and disturbances that amplify risks.
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Authors: Jos Barlow, Nathália S. Carvalho, Cássio Alencar Nunes, Ana Paula Dutra Aguiar, Ane Alencar, Liana O. Anderson, Luiz E. O. C. Aragão, Fabrício Beggiato Baccaro, Mike Barret, Érika Berenguer, Kristian Bodolai, Paulo Brando, Thiago B. A. Couto, Tomas F. Domingues, Fernando Elias, Ted R. Feldpausch, Igor José Malfetoni Ferreira, Joice N. Ferreira, Bernardo M. Flores, David Galbraith, Toby Gardner, Emanuel Gloor, Marina Hirota, Val Kapos, David M. Lapola, Cecília Gontijo Leal, Alexander Charles Lees, Bel Lyon, Marcia Macedo, Yadvinder Malhi, Beatriz Schwantes Marimon, Ben Hur Marimon, Patrick Meir, Lina M. Mercado, Oliver Metcalf, Leonardo Miranda, Edward Mitchard, Douglas C. Morton, Jeanne L. Nel, Rafael S. Oliveira, Oliver L. Phillips, Lucy Rowland, Juliana Schietti, Camila S. J. Silva, Celso H. L. Silva, Patrícia S. Silva, Juliana M. Silveira, Divino Vicente Silvério, Stephen Sitch, Paulo Amador Tavares, Cristina Telhado, Ima C. G. Vieira, Helga Correa Wiederhecker
Institutions: Columbia University, Universidade Federal do Amazonas, University of Exeter, University of Oxford, Universidade Estadual de Campinas (UNICAMP), Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina, Wageningen University & Research, UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Yale University, University of Edinburgh, Goddard Space Flight Center, University of Leeds, Universidade Federal de Mato Grosso, University of East Anglia, Universidade Estadual do Amapá, UN Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre, Universidade de Santiago de Compostela, Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas da Amazônia, Universidade de Ribeirão Preto, Lancaster University, Universidade do Estado de Mato Grosso, Universidade Federal do Maranhão, Manchester Metropolitan University, Department of Space, Amazon Research Foundation, Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais, Museu Paraense Emílio Goeldi, Instituto de Pesquisa Ambiental da Amazônia, WWF-UK, Stockholm Environment Institute