Advancing conflict research and response through satellite-derived data

Abstract

Abstract With armed conflicts at a historic high and attacks on civilians rising 1 , understanding the evolving nature of conflict is a critical research priority. The current paradigm in conflict research relies heavily on text-based data, using fatalities as the primary—and often sole—proxy for violence intensity. Although these data have expanded our ability to study armed conflict, they exhibit inherent limitations due to uneven human reporting 2–6 . War damage assessments based on satellite data 7–13 offer a complementary perspective. Satellite-derived data have their own limitations, but these arise from different mechanisms, creating distinct, complementary strengths that can be leveraged through data integration. Here we propose three concrete approaches to integration: improvement, enrichment and fusion. Each bridges a different gap in the underlying data sources. We use case studies from Ukraine and Myanmar to illustrate how integration can be implemented in practice and the novel analytical insights that emerge. Prioritizing data integration enables a paradigm shift away from fatality-centric research towards a broader spectrum of violence, revealing the complexity of conflict dynamics.