From frameworks to futures: health adaptation pathways across the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

Abstract

Abstract Effectively managing the rising health risks of climate change requires consideration of plausible adaptation pathways under a range of scenarios of changes in greenhouse gas emissions and socioeconomic development to systematically explore the solution space for climate-resilient health systems. Incorporating adaptation pathways approaches into health planning can facilitate understanding of adaptation opportunities, barriers, and limits by different degrees of warming (based on Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) and levels of socioeconomic development (e.g., Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP)). This understanding supports prioritization of policies and measures to reduce current and near-term risks, leading to more robust and timely health decisions. We explore how health adaptation pathways can be operationalized under the SSP framework to inform health system planning by: (i) identifying limits to adaptation (e.g., tipping dynamics where strategies are no longer feasible); (ii) illustrating timing and implementation delays, showing how deployment of health interventions may vary across development pathways; and (iii) exploring how multiple climate-sensitive health-related risks may stress health system capacity. Health decision makers can use the adaptation pathways approach in key activities such as vulnerability and adaptation assessments, developing health adaptation plans, and communication with interest holders, thereby strengthening preparedness and resilience for climate change.