Richmond’s Peacemaker program linked to fewer firearm assaults over 14 years

A study found fatal and nonfatal firearm assaults fell more in Richmond than in a comparison made from similar US cities after the program began.

Editorial illustration — not from the study.

Researchers examined firearm assault data from Richmond, California, from 1996 through 2024. They compared the city’s quarterly counts after the Peacemaker Fellowship began in June 2010 with estimates from a weighted combination of US cities that had similar crime and demographic patterns before the program began.

The Fellowship provides a 24-month program for people identified as being at the center of gun violence. Street outreach workers offer supportive services and help interrupt conflicts. Over the 14 years of implementation, Richmond had fewer fatal and nonfatal firearm assaults than the comparison estimate, with the difference appearing larger after the program expanded.

Fewer assaults in Richmond

Compared with the study’s synthetic comparison city, Richmond had an average reduction of 78.39 fatal and nonfatal firearm assaults per quarter during the 14 years of the Peacemaker Fellowship. The 95% confidence interval for this estimate was 34.24 to 128.48 assaults, and the reduction represented 61.47% fewer assaults. Descriptive summaries indicated a 49.2% reduction during the initial period from 2010 to 2016 and a 66.3% reduction from 2017 to 2024, after expansion of the program.

Why the findings matter

Firearm violence causes premature death and disability, and communities are testing public-health approaches alongside other violence-prevention strategies. The Richmond findings suggest that maintaining and expanding a program built around street outreach, supportive services and conflict interruption was associated with fewer fatal and nonfatal firearm assaults over a long period. The results add evidence about outcomes beyond the program’s earlier evaluation, which covered the period through 2016.

Evidence and caveats

This was a cross-sectional study using Federal Bureau of Investigation Uniform Crime Reporting data and an augmented synthetic comparison made from similar US cities. Because Richmond was not randomly assigned to receive the Peacemaker Fellowship, the study shows an association rather than proving that the program caused the reduction. Other changes in Richmond or differences between the city and its comparison cities could have contributed to the results. The findings also come from one city and may not apply in the same way elsewhere.

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