Decentralized Solar-Driven Plant Factories Secure an Adequate Global Vegetable Supply beyond the Electricity Grid and Water Limitations

Abstract

Abstract Conventional open-field vegetable production is increasingly constrained by climate volatility and natural resource endowments, creating supply instabilities and shortages that threaten global food resilience and human health. Here, we integrate solar photovoltaics and atmospheric water harvesting with plant factories, creating a technically mature off-grid agricultural system using plant factories (OASIS). By decoupling production from local water and grid infrastructure, OASIS significantly expands the area suitable for cultivation. Globally, OASIS can meet the recommended upper vegetable intake (600 g capita–1 day–1) for at least 98.3% of the population, leveraging mostly non-arable land. Cropland substitution could spare approximately 578,000 km2 for staple food production and, under the idealized zero-operational-loss case, reduce agricultural nitrogen and phosphorus losses by up to 9.90 and 0.95 Tg yr–1, respectively. Estimated global, production-weighted levelized costs were 3.8–4.0 USD kg–1 across six scenarios. Under the 600 g capita–1 day–1 scenario with cropland substitution, OASIS offered cost advantages over existing production benchmarks in 115 of 166 comparable countries, including all 26 low-income countries, which could meet modeled supply targets with a 32.2% average cost advantage. These results highlight OASIS’s potential to advance resilient, clean vegetable production and the Sustainable Development Goals across food security, health, and land conservation.