Projected lives saved and economic value of mRNA cancer immunotherapies in the United States

Abstract

Messenger RNA (mRNA) technology helped prevent millions of deaths during the COVID-19 pandemic and is emerging as a promising cancer treatment modality. Early-phase trials suggest mRNA immunotherapies can improve overall and recurrence-free survival. However, the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services has terminated investment in this transformative platform. Although the funding cuts target infectious-disease vaccines, they could also slow broader research across the platform, with implications for cancer applications. To assess the potential public health and economic value of mRNA immunotherapies as cancer treatments, we combined early clinical trial evidence with incidence- and demographic-adjusted survival estimates from the National Cancer Institute's SEER program to project outcomes for non-small cell lung cancer, pancreatic cancer, renal cell carcinoma, and metastatic melanoma. We then applied the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services' Value of a Statistical Life Year ($604,246; 3% discount rate) to quantify the economic value associated with survival gains. Among U.S. patients diagnosed with these cancers in a single year, mRNA immunotherapies could avert an estimated 49,415 (95% CrI: 28,233–71,085) deaths. The corresponding economic value is estimated at $75.55 (95% CrI: $44.20–$103.43) billion, substantially exceeding the funding cut and highlighting the long-term value of continued innovation in mRNA-based therapeutics.