Researchers analyzed tropical cyclone best-track records across the western North Pacific and identified a poleward redistribution of storm activity along East Asia. Occurrence and landfall likelihood declined at lower latitudes, while activity and landfall likelihood increased at higher latitudes, even as the basin produced fewer storms overall.
Climate & Environment1 month ago
Tropical cyclone hazards have shifted north along East Asia, study finds
Fewer storms are making landfall at lower latitudes, while activity and landfall likelihood have increased farther north without a long-term rise in peak strength.
How storm risks shifted
Storm occurrence decreased south of 30°N and increased at higher latitudes. Tracks became more oriented toward land and higher latitudes, and the share of storms making landfall fell south of 20°N but rose north of 30°N. Storms also moved modestly faster, giving them less time over the ocean before landfall, especially in the most recent decade. The researchers found no significant long-term trend in lifetime maximum intensity, while mean intensity weakened slightly. Together, the findings point to changing storm tracks and movement speeds as the main factors behind the redistribution of coastal hazards, rather than a systematic increase in storm strength.
Why location matters
The results suggest that coastal hazard patterns along East Asia are changing unevenly. Lower-latitude areas may face fewer landfalls, while higher-latitude areas may see more storm activity and landfall risk. Faster-moving storms and shorter periods over the ocean before landfall add another factor for assessing regional coastal hazards. The study therefore describes a shift in where hazards are concentrated, not a uniform increase everywhere.
Records and caveats
The analysis uses tropical cyclone best-track data covering 1980 to 2025, allowing researchers to examine changes in occurrence, tracks, landfalls, movement speed and intensity over several decades. It identifies associations and long-term patterns in the records; the abstract does not establish that a single factor caused the redistribution. It also does not provide specific hazard estimates for individual countries or coastlines, and the reported patterns apply to the western North Pacific and East Asia rather than necessarily to other regions.
// Source
Advances in Atmospheric Sciences · 2026 · DOI: 10.1007/s00376-026-5906-y
Authors: Jia Sun, Kang Sun, Shoude Guan, Qi Shu, Quanan Zheng, Dejun Dai, Xuejun Xiong, Guihua Wang
Institutions: Ocean University of China, Fudan University, Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology, Zhejiang University, University of Maryland, College Park, First Institute of Oceanography, Zhejiang Ocean University, Ministry of Natural Resources
