From 2000 to 2019, most land and people saw at least one setback, while only a small share improved across climate, air, development, and ecosystems.
Researchers looked at high-resolution data to track four parts of sustainable development—climate mitigation, air pollution control, socioeconomic activity and infrastructure, and ecosystem vitality—from 2000 to 2019.
They found deterioration in at least one dimension across 95.0% of land, affecting 94.8% of people, while only 5.0% of land—covering 5.2% of people—improved in all four dimensions.
The study reports widespread mixed outcomes rather than broad, simultaneous progress. Deterioration in at least one of the four dimensions occurred across 95.0% of land (94.8% of people), while improvement across all four occurred on 5.0% of land (5.2% of people). It also finds pronounced inequality between country income groups: 72.4% of people in high-income countries lived in improving areas, compared with 24.7% in low-income countries and 11.6% in lower-middle-income countries. Changes in carbon emissions, fine particle air pollution, nighttime light intensity, and vegetation greenness often moved in different directions, indicating tradeoffs among goals.
The results suggest that using national averages to judge Sustainable Development Goal progress can miss how unevenly gains and setbacks are distributed within and across places. The authors argue for fairer, place-specific policies to address the local tradeoffs and inequality their global analysis detects.
This is a global analysis using high-resolution gridded data for 2000–2019 and selected environmental and development indicators. A key limitation is that the study uses particular measures—carbon emissions, fine particle air pollution, nighttime light, and vegetation greenness—which do not capture every aspect of sustainability, and the gridded approach reflects where and how these indicators change rather than direct assessments of all local human experiences.
Communications Sustainability · 2026 · DOI: 10.1038/s44458-026-00124-9
Authors: Yangyang Guo, Wenhua Yu, Rongbin Xu, Zhihu Xu, Tingting Ye, Michael Tong, Sotiris Vardoulakis, Yuming Guo, Xuemei Bai
Institutions: Monash University, Australian National University, Chongqing University, Chongqing Emergency Medical Center, University of Canberra
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