The maps estimate the probability of ballistic volcanic rocks reaching parts of Stromboli during the next 10 and 50 years.
The study combines three statistical models based on historical and recent records of Stromboli’s explosive activity. The models account for different assumptions, including areas observed to have been affected in the past, possible gaps in the data, and changes in the volcano’s shape and eruption dynamics.
The resulting maps show areas that could be affected by major explosions, paroxysms, or both. The researchers also combined the maps with a model of how often these events occur to estimate ballistic-fallout probabilities over 10- and 50-year periods.
Evidence and limits
The results come from mathematical and statistical analyses of extensive historical and recent records of explosive activity, using three models that represent different assumptions about fallout patterns and uncertainty. The researchers describe the combined maps as robust and conservative.
The estimates depend partly on assumptions about the relative proportion of major explosions and paroxysms, as well as on a model of how often these events occur. The abstract says the results are only limitedly influenced by mapping uncertainties and by the assumed event proportions; it does not provide the detailed 10- and 50-year probabilities for each location.
