Burden of CNS neoplasms in the Middle East and North Africa from 1990 to 2023, with projections to 2050

Abstract

Central nervous system (CNS) neoplasms are uncommon but highly consequential malignancies that account for substantial neurological disability and premature mortality. The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is marked by rapid population growth, aging, and uneven health system capacity, yet comprehensive long-term evaluations of CNS neoplasm burden across countries, sexes, and age groups remain limited. We analyzed data from the Global Burden of Disease 2023 study to assess trends in incidence, prevalence, and mortality from CNS neoplasms in the MENA region from 1990 to 2023, with projections to 2050. Age-standardized incidence, prevalence, and mortality rates per 1,00,000 population were estimated. Temporal trends were evaluated using Joinpoint regression to calculate annual percent change and average annual percent change (AAPC) with 95% confidence intervals. Analyses were stratified by sex, age group, and country. Between 1990 and 2023, the age-standardized mortality rate remained largely stable with a small but significant upward trend (AAPC 0.09%). Mortality rates were consistently higher among males. Adults aged 20 years and older experienced rising age-standardized mortality (AAPC 0.58%), whereas mortality declined among individuals younger than 20 years (AAPC−0.90%). Incidence increased in both absolute numbers and age-standardized rates (AAPC 0.42%). Prevalence also rose steadily, with the age-standardized prevalence rate increasing from 13.46 to 19.51 per 1,00,000 (AAPC 1.13%), driven mainly by adults. The burden of CNS neoplasms in the MENA region has intensified over the past 3 decades, highlighting the need for improved surveillance, earlier diagnosis, and expanded access to specialized neuro-oncological care.