Net carbon emission accounts, drivers, and mitigation measures in China, 1980–2020

Abstract

Mitigating net CO 2 emissions under socioeconomic development and climate variability is essential for climate action and sustainable development goals. Here, focusing on anthropogenic emissions and terrestrial ecosystem sinks, we construct a national-scale account of China's net emissions from 1980 to 2020, examine their evolution, and quantify the contributions of drivers and mitigation measures. We found that anthropogenic emissions dominated the long-term increase in net emissions, while ecosystem sinks offset only ∼12–32% of the increase in anthropogenic emissions. Meanwhile, the sensitivity of ecosystem sinks to climate variability introduced interannual fluctuations in net emissions, especially through responses to irradiance and precipitation anomalies. By combining an extended Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index decomposition with scenario simulations of ecosystem sinks, we found that rising affluence was the main driver of increasing net emissions, whereas declining energy intensity was the main mitigation measure. Land-use management and vegetation-related sink efficiency generally reduced net emissions, but their contributions weakened over time. The direct climate-related effect on ecosystem sinks differed across periods and was comparable to some anthropogenic drivers. By linking anthropogenic emissions, ecosystem sinks, and climate variability over four decades, this study provides a basis for assessing net-zero pathways under socioeconomic development and climate variability.