Interpreting Air Temperature Trends Across the Antarctic Peninsula Between 1979 and 2025

Abstract

Abstract The near‐surface temperature of the Antarctic Peninsula is marked by strong spatio‐temporal variability. In situ observations are scarce and therefore have limited spatial coverage. Furthermore, ERA‐5 reanalysis does not have a sufficient spatial resolution to capture the steep topography and other climate gradients of the peninsula. Here, we evaluate and use the regional climate model RACMO2.4p1 to demonstrate that the average warming in the Antarctic Peninsula, as well as over all individual ice shelves, has been statistically insignificant between 1979 and 2025. We show that significant warming between 1979 and 2025 is restricted to northern coastal stations. Peninsula wide significant cooling between approximately 2000 and 2015 is strongest in the east. Peninsula wide significant warming after approximately 2015 is strongest in the northwest. We show that temperature trends strongly correlate with sea‐ice concentration, leading to larger trends in observations near the coast.