Longitudinal electric vehicle adoption patterns and neighborhood predictors in California

Abstract

Objective Prior studies of determinants of Zero-Emission Vehicle (ZEV) adoption have relied largely on cross-sectional data, obscuring temporal variation. We identified ZEV adoption trajectories in California ZIP Code Tabulation Areas (ZCTAs) and related them to neighborhood determinants. Methods Annual ZIP code-level counts (per 1000 population) of ZEV, battery electric vehicle (BEV), and plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) registrations were obtained from the California Energy Commission and Department of Motor Vehicles from 2012 to 2023. Baseline predictors were obtained from multiple publicly available sources and grouped into three domains: Demographic & Socioeconomic Status, Housing & Vehicle Access, and Urban Infrastructure. Latent class trajectory models identified distinct adoption trajectories for each ZCTA and vehicle type. Associations between predictors and trajectory classes were assessed using ANOVA, chi-square tests, and gradient boosting machines. Results Three trajectory classes were identified for ZEV and PHEV, and four for BEV. Common trajectories included “High, steady increase,” “Medium, steady increase,” and “Low/Medium, lagged increase,” with BEV showing an additional “Low, long-lagged increase” class, which lagged until 2018–2019. Across vehicle types, higher educational attainment and household income consistently distinguished higher adoption trajectories. Urban infrastructure, particularly greater street connectivity, urbanicity, and charging station growth, emerged as the second strongest predictor domain. Conclusion ZEV adoption followed heterogeneous longitudinal trajectories in California, shaped by neighborhood socioeconomic conditions and urban infrastructure. Lower-adoption trajectories are associated with socioeconomic and infrastructural disadvantages. Distinguishing neighborhoods by adoption level and timing provides a framework for equitable transportation planning and targeted strategies to expand ZEV access.