Affective divisions and climate policy polarization

Abstract

Climate policy attitudes are increasingly polarized across Western Europe. We examine how affective polarization shapes these attitudes, arguing that affective distance between opposing identity camps contributes to voters adopting climate positions that align with their own side and diverge from their opponents. In Western European multiparty systems, Green and right-wing populist parties serve as visible anchors of these camps, such that greater affective distance between them should be associated with more polarized climate attitudes, particularly where voters perceive the parties as clearly divided on climate policy. We test this argument in Germany between 2016 and 2025, focusing on the Greens and the AfD. Using German Longitudinal Election Study panel data, within-respondent fixed-effects models, and two-wave campaign analyses, we find that greater Green–AfD affective distance is associated with movement toward climate positions aligned with a respondent’s side, especially as voters perceive larger differences between the parties on climate policy.