Assessing Land Cover Change and Forest Sustainability in a World Heritage Context: Evidence from the Okapi Wildlife Reserve

Abstract

Long-term monitoring of land cover dynamics is essential for evaluating conservation outcomes in World Heritage sites, yet remains challenging in conflict-affected regions with limited field observations. This study aims to reconstruct annual land cover dynamics and assess forest sustainability in the Okapi Wildlife Reserve (OWR), a World Heritage site in the Democratic Republic of Congo. Using Landsat dense time series observations (2000–2023), the Continuous Change Detection and Classification (CCDC) algorithm, landscape metrics, and the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 15.1.1 indicator, we developed an annual scale framework to quantify land cover changes and conservation status. The results showed that forest loss was the dominant land cover change process, with degradation accelerating after 2013. Forest disturbances were spatially heterogeneous, mainly concentrated in the boundary buffer zone and along National Road No. 4, while localized disturbances also occurred within the core protected area. Landscape fragmentation increased during the study period, and SDG 15.1.1 trends revealed differentiated conservation pressures among management zones. This study provides an annual-scale land cover history of the OWR and demonstrates the potential of Earth observation for monitoring endangered World Heritage sites.