Declines in European bumblebee habitat suitability attributable to climate change

Abstract

Climate change is increasingly implicated in the decline of insect pollinator populations, which provide critical ecosystem services. Isolating its contribution from other co-occurring environmental stresses remains challenging yet crucial for informing conservation strategies and mitigating biodiversity losses. Here we compare predictions of ecologically suitable areas for European bumblebee species from 1901 to 2019 under factual and counterfactual scenarios to evaluate whether climate change has led to a loss of suitable habitat. Community-level ecological suitability was reduced by climate change across Europe by 5% on average and up to 19% locally, with pronounced declines in southern and lowland central regions. By contrast, in the Alpine and Boreal regions, habitat suitability gains at higher altitudes partially offset losses at lower latitudes and altitudes, resulting in minimal net changes. Our results demonstrate that climate change is reshaping the ecologically suitable areas for these key pollinators and represents a pervasive pressure on European wildlife. The authors consider factual and counterfactual scenarios to isolate the role of climate change in the decline of suitable habitats for European bumblebees (1901–2019). They show reductions of 5% on average, and up to 19% locally, with high-altitude gains partially offsetting losses.