Prediction and Planning of Planting for Ecologically Suitable Areas of Cistanche deserticola Using MaxEnt

Abstract

This study aimed to predict potentially suitable areas for Cistanche deserticola in China and to provide a scientific basis for its cultivation layout and production planning. Based on the MaxEnt algorithm and ArcGIS spatial analysis, two independent ecological niche models were constructed, one for each host–parasite system, to predict the ecologically suitable areas for C. deserticola hosted by Haloxylon ammodendron and Atriplex canescens, respectively. The suitable areas for H. ammodendron–C. deserticola were mainly distributed in central and northwestern Xinjiang, north-central Inner Mongolia, north-central Gansu and Ningxia. The highly, moderately and lowly suitable areas accounted for 20.74%, 30.63% and 30.92% of the total area of the seven provinces (Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, Gansu, Ningxia, Qinghai, Shaanxi, and Shanxi), respectively. The suitable areas for A. canescens–C. deserticola were mainly distributed in central and western Xinjiang, west-central Inner Mongolia, central Gansu Province, north-central Ningxia, northeastern Qinghai Province and western Shaanxi Province, with highly, moderately, and lowly suitable areas accounting for 10.80%, 24.73% and 32.45% of the total area of the seven provinces, respectively. Response curve analysis revealed that annual precipitation (optimal range approximately 150–400 mm) and elevation (optimal range approximately 150–2000 m for H. ammodendron–C. deserticola and 270–1000 m for A. canescens–C. deserticola) were key factors constraining the cultivation pattern. The unimodal shape of the response curves indicated that both insufficient and excessive values of these variables reduced habitat suitability. For areas adjacent to lakes or equipped with irrigation facilities, sites with annual precipitation exceeding 150 mm should be prioritized for cultivation. It should be noted that the predicted areas represent environmental suitability derived from the correlation between occurrence records and abiotic predictors, rather than confirmed cultivation areas; field validation and consideration of biotic (host availability) and anthropogenic (land use, management) factors are required before large-scale planting. This study provides a scientific basis for the introduction and cultivation of C. deserticola in different regions and large-scale cultivation planning.