The impact of climate change on the river basins of Parma (Italy) and Kamianka (Ukraine): a comparative analysis

Abstract

Abstract This study compares climate change impacts on two contrasting European river basins: the Parma River (Italy) and the Kamianka River (Ukraine) representing different ecoregions and climatic zones. The research used QGIS tools and satellite data from Landsat Collection 2 Level 2 from 1990, 2000, 2010, 2020 and 2023 years to analyze temporal vegetation and water index changes. The methodology incorporated normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and normalized difference water index (NDWI) calculations, along with an analysis of temperature trends and standardized precipitation index (SPI-6) data. Results revealed distinct patterns of climate change impacts: the Parma River basin experienced a temperature increase of 1.03°C during 1990–2020 with dominant NDVI class intervals in the 0.3 to 0.6 range in 2010–2020, while dominant NDWI class intervals remained negative (-0.3 to -0.2) with the driest conditions around 2000. The Kamianka River basin showed a more pronounced temperature rise of 1.4°C with dominant NDVI class intervals increasing after 2000 up to range 0.4 to 0.6 and dominant NDWI class intervals shifting toward more negative values (-0.3 to -0.2), suggesting increased water stress. Both basins exhibited different vulnerability patterns: the Parma River system faces increased flood risks and potential agricultural productivity gains. In contrast, the Kamianka River system shows heightened drought susceptibility and potential agrarian productivity losses. These findings suggest the need for tailored adaptation strategies for river basin management under different climatic conditions.