Global sustainable development trends reveal widespread inequality and tradeoffs

Abstract

Progress towards the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals is usually assessed at the national scale, but national averages can hide local differences and trade-offs. Here we show a global assessment of sustainable development trends from 2000 to 2019 using high-resolution gridded data, covering climate mitigation, air pollution control, socioeconomic activity and infrastructure development, and ecosystem vitality. We use carbon dioxide emissions, fine particle air pollution, nighttime light intensity, and vegetation greenness as indicators. We find that deterioration in at least one dimension occurs across 95.0% of land, where 94.8% of people live, while improvement across all four dimensions occurs on only 5.0% of land, covering 5.2% of people. Mixed outcomes are the dominant pattern, showing that gains in one dimension often coincide with setbacks in another. Inequality is pronounced: 72.4% of people in high-income countries live in improving areas, compared with 24.7% in low-income countries and 11.6% in lower-middle-income countries. These results call for fairer, place-specific policies. From 2000–2019, sustainable development progressed unevenly. Most places saw decline in at least one area, while only a few improved across all four. Carbon emissions, air pollution, nighttime light and vegetation often changed in different directions, revealing tradeoffs and spatial inequality.