Ugandan farmers weighed carbon payments against local risks and livelihoods

A study found that predictable compensation and adaptation benefits could shape smallholders’ willingness to join agroforestry carbon projects.

Editorial illustration — not from the study.

Researchers examined how smallholders in Uganda make decisions about joining agroforestry-based carbon projects, which can generate climate benefits while potentially supporting adaptation. Interviews showed that compensation levels were not judged in isolation: farmers’ available resources, exposure to climate disasters and other livelihood conditions shaped how attractive an offer seemed.

A quantitative analysis identified a context-specific compensation benchmark of $54 per hectare per year. Participation likelihood rose with higher compensation, previous agroforestry experience, exposure to climate disasters and trust in climate policy, while uncertainty about prices reduced it.

What shaped farmers’ choices

The study found that participation decisions depended on financial, social, institutional and livelihood conditions. Identical compensation levels were perceived differently by farmers facing different resources and risks, suggesting that the costs of adapting are not uniform across households.

The quantitative analysis identified a compensation benchmark of $54 per hectare per year in this setting. Participation likelihood increased by 1% for each additional dollar of compensation, by 22% among farmers with prior agroforestry experience, by 14% among those exposed to climate disasters and by 6% among those with greater trust in climate policy. Price uncertainty reduced participation likelihood by 4%.

Why local conditions matter

The findings suggest that carbon-finance programs intended to support climate adaptation may need more than a single payment level. Predictable payments, minimum price guarantees, adaptation benefits and institutional support could help make participation more equitable and durable in rural communities, while the appropriate compensation may depend on local livelihood and environmental conditions.

Evidence and caveats

The research combined qualitative interviews with quantitative stated-preference analysis among smallholders in rural Uganda. The abstract does not report the number of participants, and the results describe a context-specific benchmark rather than a universal payment level. Stated willingness to participate may also differ from farmers’ actual decisions to join a carbon project, and the findings may not apply directly to other regions or livelihood settings.

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