Tracing the Evolution of Anti-Kremlin Communication and Audience Engagement on Telegram During the Russia–Ukraine Conflict

Abstract

During Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Telegram became an important platform for both state-aligned communication and opposition-oriented discourse. Over time, anti-Kremlin Telegram channels emerged as prominent venues for dissent amid increasing restrictions on independent political expression. This study examines how anti-Kremlin communication and audience engagement evolved across seven phases of the conflict. We analyze 354,819 posts from 114 anti-Kremlin Telegram channels published between January 2022 and March 2023 using computational topic modeling, qualitative thematic analysis, event-based temporal segmentation, and planned statistical contrasts of posting activity and viewer emoji reactions. The analysis identifies five persistent communication themes: Russian Domestic Affairs, Economy, International Politics, Ukrainian Domestic Affairs, and Combat and Frontline Updates. Although these themes reflect central dimensions of the conflict, their prominence and associated audience engagement did not remain stable over time. Economy-related communication concentrated in the early phases before declining; Combat and International Politics repeatedly regained prominence alongside shifting military and diplomatic developments; and Russian Domestic Affairs generated strong engagement during periods of mobilization, annexation, and opposition-related issues. Across themes, changes in communication activity and viewer reactions temporally corresponded with major offline developments. These patterns show that anti-Kremlin Telegram channels sustained visible discussion of politically sensitive issues and attracted strong audience engagement during key political phases, suggesting that Telegram functioned as a countervailing communication space for dissent despite severe offline constraints on free speech.