Impacts of ocean warming, acidification and food quality on European abalone growth and reproduction: A Dynamic Energy Budget model approach across climate scenarios

Abstract

Ocean acidification and warming (OAW) are expected to alter physiology, growth and reproduction of marine ectotherms, yet their combined effects on life-history traits remain unresolved, particularly under poorly defined future food conditions. Using a Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) model, we investigated how interacting changes in temperature, seawater pH, and food quality may shape somatic growth and reproductive phenology of the European abalone Haliotis tuberculata across four contrasting coastal environments and three Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) climate scenarios. OAW effects were modeled as increased metabolic maintenance costs, while reduced food quality, driven by OAW, lowered assimilation efficiency, aligning with experimentally-supported limited compensatory feeding.,Our results reveal that warming and food quality strongly drive somatic growth, whit ocean acidification playing a minor role within the modeled range. Food quality remained the primary determinant of maximum body size, while warming amplified growth across all locations, with the largest proportional increases in cooler northern bays. Individuals in the warmest areas remained the largest across scenarios within the model framework. Reproductive timing also shifted consistently, with first spawning occurring markedly earlier under end-of-century conditions, advancing consistently with scenario intensity. Food quality modulated reproductive investment but had weaker effects on the timing of first spawning., These findings highlight that food quality critically mediates organismal responses to OAW and can offset temperature-driven gains in growth and reproduction. By combining expected nutritional constraints with SSP scenarios, our DEB-based approach provide mechanistic insights into the future responses of benthic marine invertebrates to climate change, highlighting the value of these scenario-based projections for better management strategies.