Demographic effects of earthquakes in Central and Southern Italy

Abstract

This paper evaluates the demographic effects of two major earthquakes – L’Aquila 2009 and Central Italy 2016 – that struck a large area in Central and Southern Italy. Using municipality-level data (2002–2023) and a difference-in-differences design with multiple groups and periods, we estimate causal impacts on several demographic outcomes. Results suggest an acceleration of population decline due to these natural disasters largely driven by migration, while natural demographic dynamics did not contribute to the observed depopulation. Effects differ across disasters: the 2016 earthquake generated persistent population losses across all age groups, whereas the 2009 event was associated with a loss in elderly Italians but also temporary increases in working-age foreign residents during the reconstruction phase.