Concurrent Eurasian Heatwaves Will Intensify Beyond the Mean Warming

Abstract

Abstract Concurrent heatwaves over Europe and North China are the most frequent compound heat extremes across the Northern Hemisphere. They are systematically organized by a recurrent teleconnection along the polar front jet over Eurasia. Using observations and large‐ensemble simulations, we show that even after removing the forced warming trend, future concurrent heatwave events (2070–2100) intensify substantially relative to the historical period (1920–2005), with excess warming over both regions exceeding 0.5°C locally and 0.3°C regionally. This intensification is driven by fundamentally different mechanisms in the two regions. Over North China, a strengthened ridge promotes subsidence and clear‐sky conditions that enhance radiative heating, whereas over Europe, progressive soil drying under climate change reduces evaporative cooling, producing a net energy surplus even as the circulation anomaly weakens. These findings demonstrate that the concurrent structure of future heat extremes intensifies beyond the mean climate response, a compound risk not captured by mean‐state projections.