Holocene summer and winter temperature trends and excursions in East-Central Europe from Carpathian pollen records

Abstract

This study reconstructs summer and winter temperatures for East-Central Europe (ECE) over the last 12 ka using pollen records from five mid-altitude sites in the Carpathian Mountains. Seasonal reconstructions were combined into composite records and statistically evaluated to identify significant long-term trends and short-term excursions. Both seasons reveal strong Early Holocene warming, followed by contrasting trajectories. Summer temperatures peaked at 7.2 ka (1.4 °C above Holocene mean) and then gradual declined, whereas winter temperatures continued rising until a Late Holocene maximum at 2.1 ka (1.7 °C above Holocene mean) before decreasing during the last two millennia. These opposing trends indicate a progressive reduction in continentality across ECE over the last 6 ka. The 8.2 ka event represents the only statistically significant short-term excursion, with a cooling of 2 °C in summer and 2.4 °C in winter. Comparison with independent proxy records and climate model simulations shows broad agreement with reconstructed pattern of Holocene seasonal temperature evolution.