From traditional to modern fuels: Heating energy choices of poor and non-poor households in Türkiye

Abstract

This study examines differences in heating fuel preferences between poor and non-poor households in Türkiye. Using nationally representative microdata from TurkStat’s Income and Living Conditions Survey (2014–2019), a multinomial probit regression model is applied to examine the socioeconomic and demographic determinants of households’ choices among traditional fuels (wood and derivatives–dung, other/no heating system), transition fuels (coal), and advanced fuels (natural gas, LPG, fuel oil, electricity, and renewable energy sources). The goodness-of-fit statistics indicated that the multinomial probit models for both poor and non-poor households were statistically significant (poor households: χ2 = 3013.785, p < .001; non-poor households: χ2 = 26660.703, p < .001). The adjusted R2 values of 0.171 and 0.160 indicated acceptable explanatory power for analyzing households’ heating fuel preferences. The results indicate that heating-fuel preferences differ substantially between households with low and higher incomes. Among low-income households, the likelihood of adopting advanced fuels is significantly influenced by factors such as marital status, education level, occupation, age, gender, household composition, employment structure, home ownership, and housing characteristics. In particular, among poor households, university-educated household heads were 192.3% more likely to prefer advanced fuels, whereas households with elderly members were 42.8% less likely to adopt advanced fuels. Similarly, among non-poor households, university-educated household heads were 106.5% more likely to adopt advanced fuels. In contrast, households headed by qualified workers in agriculture, forestry, and aquaculture were 179.1% less likely to prefer advanced fuels. Overall, the findings demonstrate that heating fuel preferences were significantly associated with household head socioeconomic and demographic characteristics. These results suggest the presence of persistent barriers to the adoption of clean and advanced heating fuels, particularly among low-income households. Accordingly, the study emphasizes the need for targeted subsidies, financial support mechanisms, and information-based policies to promote affordable, clean heating solutions. Enhancing energy literacy through training programs may further facilitate the transition toward advanced fuels among households with lower educational attainment.