Multi-Scenario Simulation of Land-Use Change and Its Impacts on Ecosystem Services in Hubei Province, China

Abstract

Land-use change is a primary driver of changes in ecosystem services, and different development scenarios imply markedly different ecological responses, with consequences for regional economic development and ecological protection. However, existing studies have mostly focused on historical and current conditions, and quantitative assessments of future ecosystem-service changes under multiple land-use scenarios remain limited. In this study, the patch-generating land-use simulation (PLUS) model was used to simulate land-use patterns of Hubei Province under business-as-usual (BAU), economic development (ED), and ecological conservation (EC) scenarios for 2030 and 2040; five ecosystem services—habitat quality (HQ), soil conservation (SC), grain productivity (GP), water yield (WY), and water purification (WP, proxied by nitrogen export)—were then assessed for 2000–2020 and the future scenarios at a 30 m resolution using InVEST-based modules; Spearman correlation analysis was used to identify trade-offs and spatial associations among services, and the geographical detector model (GDM) was applied at 5 km and 10 km grid scales to quantify the explanatory power of driving factors. The results show that from 2000 to 2020, cultivated land, forest land, grassland, and unused land in Hubei Province decreased by 273,146.76 hm2, 61,111.08 hm2, 8712.99 hm2, and 5392.26 hm2, respectively, while construction land and water areas expanded. Over the same period, GP, SC, and WY increased, nitrogen export grew (indicating a weakening of water purification), and HQ declined continuously from 0.545 to 0.527; the comprehensive ecosystem-service index (CESI) followed a U-shaped trajectory (0.268 in 2000, 0.243 in 2010, and 0.267 in 2020). Under the future scenarios, GP increases markedly under BAU and ED, while HQ and SC deteriorate and nitrogen export rises; under EC, HQ and SC improve significantly, GP first decreases and then increases, and both WY and nitrogen export decline. Among the driving factors, elevation, slope, and NDVI dominate the spatial heterogeneity of ecosystem services, and their explanatory power varies between the 5 km and 10 km scales. These findings provide a reference for optimizing land-resource allocation and for reconciling economic development, food security, and ecological protection in Hubei Province.