Religiosity and Delinquency in the US: An Investigation of Existence, (Non)Linearity and Robustness of the Relationship

Abstract

This study used Add Health longitudinal data to investigate whether any effect of religiosity on later delinquency (likelihood of arrest and incarceration) is linear - as opposed to high-religiosity individuals driving an inverse relationship. The study assessed potential mediator-moderator interactions involving self-control and social control variables. Finally, the robustness of findings to potential biases due to omitted variables was assessed. Only highly religious participants were associated with a substantially lower likelihood of arrest. Self-control and social environment variables are important predictors of delinquency. There is little evidence that these variables mediate the effect of religiosity on outcomes; they instead moderate the effect of religiosity on outcomes. Finally, conventional regression estimates likely underestimate the true effect of religiosity on the outcome.