Divergent Forest Cover Changes Dominate Inter‐Model Spread in Near‐Surface Wind Speed Trends Over China

Abstract

Abstract Near‐surface wind speed (NSWS) regulates the intensity of land‐atmosphere fluxes and the viability of wind energy systems, playing a pivotal role in human adaptation to climate change. However, at the current stage, global climate models exhibit a wide inter‐model spread in NSWS simulations, limiting the reliability of future wind energy projections. Here, we identify the primary drivers of this uncertainty over China. We show that the spread is concentrated in North and Northeast China. Models simulating extensive forest loss exhibit weak or negligible NSWS trends because deforestation smooths the land surface and counteracts the background surface stilling. In contrast, models with limited forest loss or forest gain yield pronounced NSWS declines. This substantial spread is mainly attributable to the varying magnitude of forest cover changes, accounting for approximately 74% of the inter‐model spread. Our findings suggest that constraining forest cover changes is critical for substantially reducing the uncertainty in surface wind projections.