Short- and long-term influences on voting: the case of the 2025 Australian election

Abstract

The 2025 Australian federal election, although widely expected to result in a hung parliament, was a resounding win for the Australian Labor Party. What explained this result? Was the election result driven by long-term shifts in Australian electoral behaviour, by short-term campaign dynamics, or by a combination of the two? This article analyses the 2025 Australian Election Study data to evaluate explanations for the election result. The analyses show how a combination of long-term and short-term factors shaped the decisive win for Labor and the historic loss for the Liberal-National Coalition. The Coalition vote has gradually eroded through generational change and the emergence of a modern gender gap in voting. Against the background of these long-term social changes, short-term factors during the campaign overwhelmingly favoured Labor, including leader evaluations and the policy issues. The results have implications for debates about the possible realignment of the Australian party system.