Colonial history shapes the pathways toward energy independence driven by renewable energy innovation

Abstract

Energy independence is a cornerstone of national sovereignty, increasingly dependent on renewable energy development. Yet structural inequalities rooted in colonial history, institutional path dependence, and global innovation barriers shape the effectiveness of technology-enabled energy autonomy. Drawing on enabling technologies and colonial history, this study uses panel data for 63 economies from 2000 to 2020 to examine how renewable energy innovation affects energy independence. We find that colonial history shapes the spatial distribution of renewable energy innovation, which exhibits a robust “N-shaped” effect on energy independence: a short-term policy-induced dividend, a medium-term technological bottleneck, and a long-term scale-driven improvement. The findings remain robust when the sample window is extended. Moreover, colonial backgrounds further shape transition patterns, systemic integration bottlenecks and national responsiveness to enabling technologies, with consistent evidence across different levels of renewable energy dependence. Finally, Machine-learning analysis shows that smart grids (0.057) and energy storage (0.044) are stronger drivers of renewables’ contribution to energy independence in countries with colonial histories than in those without, indicating that colonial history shapes related technological dependencies and policy pathways.