Ground Vibration due to a Leaking Pipe: Uncertainties in Elastic Wave Propagation and Their Effects

Abstract

Abstract This work investigates the propagation of elastic waves in soil induced by a leaking buried pipe, emphasizing the influence of uncertainty on ground-surface responses. The analysis is grounded in the underlying wave physics and employs a stochastic modelling framework to capture variability in soil properties and system parameters. While previous studies have primarily focused on pipe vibrations, the present work extends the analysis to ground-surface responses, which are directly relevant to non-invasive monitoring techniques. A probabilistic model is developed to characterize the resulting ground vibrations, enabling a systematic quantification of uncertainty inherent in leak-related signals. The proposed approach employs a polynomial chaos expansion surrogate model and is validated against Monte Carlo simulations, demonstrating excellent agreement and computational efficiency. The analysis reveals the distinct contributions of shear and compressional waves and shows that their interference can cause abrupt phase changes coinciding with local minima in displacement magnitude, an effect absent when only shear waves are radiated. Additional simulations show how burial depth influences these features, confirming the robustness of the proposed framework across typical installation conditions. The proposed stochastic framework represents an important step towards enhancing the reliability and interpretability of ground-based techniques for buried pipe localization.