Protest and handcuffs: The repressive effect of arrests

Abstract

How does arresting protesters shape subsequent mobilization? Arrests account for approximately 14% of government responses to protest and differ theoretically from other repressive tactics, yet their effects on future mobilization remain understudied. We argue that arrests raise the costs of participation, lengthening the time until the next protest event, and that this repressive effect intensifies when protesters’ demands pose a greater threat to the government. Using survival analysis on 149 countries between 1991 and 2020, we find that arrests delay subsequent protest, with the strongest deterrent effect observed when protest demands directly challenge the government’s hold on power.