Sociodemographic factors associated with anticipatory perceived labor vulnerability related to the Russia–Ukraine war among workers in Latin America

Abstract

Abstract Introduction The COVID-19 pandemic disrupted labor markets in Latin America, a region characterized by high informality, socioeconomic inequality, and uneven social protection. Shortly afterward, the Russia–Ukraine war generated global uncertainty regarding inflation, commodity prices, supply chains, and economic stability. However, the extent to which geographically distant armed conflicts are perceived as potential labor-related threats by workers in structurally vulnerable regions remains insufficiently understood. Objective To identify sociodemographic factors associated with self-reported high anticipatory perceived labor vulnerability related to the Russia–Ukraine war among workers in Latin America. Methodology A cross-sectional, analytical, multicenter secondary analysis was conducted among workers in Latin American countries during the first weeks of the Russia–Ukraine conflict. Participants were asked about their perceptions of the potential impact of that conflict on their work, reflecting an anticipatory and perception-based outcome rather than direct war exposure or objectively measured labor-market change. High anticipatory perceived labor vulnerability was defined as reporting “quite a lot” or “a lot” on a five-category perception item. Descriptive and analytical statistics were performed. Results: Among 1,118 workers, 25.2% perceived quite a lot of labor-related impact from the Russia–Ukraine war, and 34.6% perceived a lot of impact, corresponding to 59.8% of the analytical sample being classified as having high anticipatory perceived labor vulnerability. Regarding work expectations, 33.3% anticipated a decrease in work, 27.5% expected work to remain the same, 25.9% reported that they could lose their job, and 13.3% anticipated an increase in work. A total of 62.0% anticipated that salaries would decrease for most workers. In the main adjusted model, male sex was associated with a lower prevalence of high anticipatory perceived labor vulnerability (aPR: 0.77; 95% CI: 0.69–0.85; p < 0.001). Age and country of residence were not independently associated with the outcome. Conclusion A high proportion of surveyed workers reported anticipatory perceived labor vulnerability related to the Russia–Ukraine war. The most consistent sociodemographic association was observed for sex. These findings should not be interpreted as evidence of objective labor-market effects, but as an exploratory assessment of subjective labor-related risk appraisal during an early period of geopolitical uncertainty.