Electoral outcomes of party families across regional development types in Europe

Abstract

Abstract. The interplay between regional disparities and electoral outcomes is central to understanding political dynamics in Europe. In debates on the “geography of discontent”, radical-right party support is often linked to so-called left-behind regions. This study broadens that perspective by examining the electoral support of multiple party families across different region types in 22 European countries. The analysis combines regional socio-demographic indicators with the most recent national election results available up to March 2025. First, a k-means cluster analysis identifies six region types by grouping regions according to socioeconomic profiles. Second, comparisons of weighted vote shares across these region types provide insights into the main strongholds of each party family. The findings show systematic electoral differences across region types. Green and radical-left parties receive the strongest support in urban clusters. Social-democratic parties are strongest in rural, disadvantaged regions and weakest in industrial ones, while conservative parties peak in industrial regions and underperform in deindustrialized metropolises. Radical-right parties are most successful in structurally disadvantaged regions and in growing industrial regions. Overall, the study highlights the value of regional typologies for understanding electoral patterns, offering a broader perspective on how regional development shapes party competition across Europe.