Transformer windings fail most as South Africa’s load shedding rises

A systematic review of transformer failure data since 2015 finds winding breakdowns as the leading cause, with other common culprits including tap changers and tank problems.

Editorial illustration — not from the study.

In a systematic literature review using a PRISMA framework, researchers examined consolidated transformer failure data from 2015 to the present, focusing on premature failures and, in particular, winding breakdown. The goal was to connect what is known from existing research to practical needs for more reliable, grid-connected transformer design under stress.

The review reports that windings account for 41% of failures, followed by tap changers (22%) and main tank failures (16%), among other categories. It also describes proposed knowledge-based technologies for diagnosing faults, but concludes that evidence for practical viability and large-scale implementation remains limited and calls for closer collaboration between academic research and utility practice.

Common failure causes

Across 2015 to the present failure data reviewed, the most common causes of power transformer failure were windings (41%), tap changers (22%), main tank failures (16%), bushings (15%), and core-related issues (4%). The review also reports that several studies propose knowledge-based fault-diagnosis technologies, but that the evidence base on whether these approaches are practical and can be implemented widely is limited.

Reliability stakes for the grid

Because the review links rising transformer failures to conditions associated with South Africa’s load shedding, it frames transformer design and maintenance as a practical concern for keeping the grid reliable. Identifying windings, tap changers, and other frequent failure points also helps narrow what future improvements and diagnostics would need to address, while highlighting a gap between academic proposals and utility uptake.

Review evidence and caveats

This is a systematic literature review of existing studies, using PRISMA to analyze consolidated transformer failure data from 2015 to the present. Its main limitation is that, as a review, it depends on the underlying research it includes and does not itself provide new experimental or field-demonstration results; it also notes limited evidence about the real-world viability and large-scale implementation of proposed knowledge-based diagnostic technologies.

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