Scarcity may make ivory, pangolin scales and rare plants more desirable

How these markets work

The researchers divide illegally traded wildlife products into three broad groups: durable luxury goods such as elephant ivory; products processed for food or medicine, such as pangolin scales; and live or perishable exotic pets and plants, including succulents.

Across the three case studies, the analysis identifies several features that distinguish these markets from other illegal markets. Wildlife can be subject to biological production limits that place an absolute ceiling on supply. Traders may also use existing legal trade infrastructure, making supply networks opportunistic rather than entirely separate from legal commerce. The analysis further finds that final retail prices can involve extreme markups, leaving harvesters with only a fraction of the value.

The researchers propose the term “Accelerating Demand for Novel or eXclusive Assets,” or AD NOXA, for a pattern in which scarcity increases the appeal of some wildlife products. They argue that this can create feedback loops that drive species toward extinction, including in situations where protective regulations are in place. Their conclusion is that supply-side enforcement alone has fundamental limits and should be combined with demand reduction strategies suited to the type of product and market.

Why demand matters

Illegal wildlife trade can damage biodiversity, disrupt ecosystems and affect livelihoods, while also carrying risks related to zoonotic disease. The abstract says these broader costs may be orders of magnitude larger than the multibillion-dollar annual value of the trade itself.

If scarcity increases demand for some wildlife products, reducing supply may not always reduce their appeal and could contribute to the feedback described by the researchers. The analysis therefore supports combining enforcement against harvesting and trading with targeted efforts to reduce demand, rather than relying on supply-side measures alone.

Evidence and caveats

This article analyzes three case studies: elephant ivory, pangolin scales and succulent plants. It proposes categories and a concept for understanding how these markets work, rather than reporting a controlled experiment or a quantified test of whether scarcity causes higher demand. The abstract does not provide market-by-market price data, sample sizes or estimates of how often these feedback loops occur, so the findings may not apply equally to every illegally traded species or product.