How have flight operations between China and Europe changed since the Russia–Ukraine war?

Abstract

This study examines how direct flight services between China and Europe changed during the COVID-19 pandemic and after the Russia–Ukraine war began in February 2022. We use monthly airport pair–airline data from January 2014 to September 2024. Our baseline model is a panel regression with route fixed effects. As a robustness check, we also estimate a two-way fixed-effects (TWFE) specification with route and period fixed effects. After February 2022, passenger traffic fell and yields rose on the sampled routes, and these changes differed between European and Chinese carriers. In the baseline route fixed-effects model, European carriers had approximately 32.7% lower revenue passenger miles and 14.4% lower yields than Chinese carriers during the war period, relative to pre-war differences. The TWFE specification gives interaction estimates of similar sign and magnitude. These differences arose at the same time as the closure of Russian airspace to European carriers and are consistent with the longer routings that other studies document, together with other concurrent factors. During the COVID-19 period, passenger traffic fell sharply. Yields rose in the pooled sample but not in either travel direction separately, which is consistent with unequal travel demand in the two directions. Taken together, these findings highlight persistent vulnerabilities in the China–Europe aviation market and point to potential airline strategies, including greater operational flexibility, service enhancements, code-sharing arrangements, and bilateral coordination, that may strengthen market resilience.