Dynamics and recurrence of fire in the Brazilian Cerrado: spatial patterns, land cover drivers, and implications for integrated fire management

Abstract

Abstract Aims: This study analyzed the spatiotemporal distribution, interannual variability, and recurrence of burned areas across land-use and land-cover (LULC) classes in the Brazilian Cerrado from 2019 to 2024. The main objective was to evaluate how fire regimes interact with natural and human-modified landscapes to support territory-oriented management strategies. Methods: Using MapBiomas Fire (Col. 4.1) and LULC (Col. 10.1) datasets, we quantified burned proportions across LULC types using R ( terra package) and QGIS. Statistical analyses included descriptive statistics, the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test for temporal trends, interannual variance, and pixel-based binary summation to map spatial fire recurrence. Results: Burned areas predominated in native vegetation: savannas (~ 52.8%) and wetlands (~ 19.5%), followed by grasslands (~ 9.1%), while forest formations and pasturelands each accounted for approximately 5.5% of the total burned area. Fire increased significantly in Soybean, Rice, Cotton, and Mosaics of Uses, with a sharp spike in 2024 for savannas and forests, coinciding with extreme dry-season thermal anomalies. High-recurrence hotspots were concentrated in ecotonal zones, particularly in the Ilha do Bananal and surrounding Indigenous Lands, driven by high fuel accumulation and anthropogenic ignitions. Conclusions: Fire in the Cerrado is structural but increasingly threatens fire-sensitive ecosystems like forests and wetlands. Mapping fire recurrence directly operationalizes Integrated Fire Management (IFM) by prioritizing early prescribed burns, optimizing firebreak and brigade placement, aligning intercultural burning calendars with indigenous communities, and establishing protection protocols for vulnerable habitats.