Testing the backlash hypothesis in climate change messaging

Abstract

Backlash against persuasive messaging can worsen polarization when two groups, such as supporters and opponents of a given policy, move their beliefs or attitudes in opposite directions in response to the same message. While recent evidence suggests that the prevalence of backlash may be overstated for most political issues, a notable number of backlash findings against climate change messaging in particular warrants additional investigation. This article details two studies that test hypotheses about backlash, as well as broader resistance to counter-attitudinal messaging, using a pre-post control group design that improves upon design weaknesses in previous backlash studies. Across two types of messaging about climate change, as well as a comparison issue, gene editing, I find consistent null results such that policy supporters and policy opponents are statistically indistinguishable in how they respond to the same message. Furthermore, whenever messages were successful in moving beliefs or attitudes, they did so in the intended direction. Using an improved analytical approach, the present research finds null results consistent with accumulating evidence that prior observed backlash may be the exception rather than the rule, even in the domain of climate change.