Introducing the Peace Observatory: Peace Negotiations and Mediation in Armed Conflicts

Abstract

This article introduces the Peace Observatory, a new global dataset that captures over 10,000 rounds of peace negotiations in interstate, intrastate, and non-state conflicts between 1989 and 2023 with regular updates planned for additional years. The Peace Observatory disaggregates peacemaking into distinct negotiation rounds. To demonstrate the value of the dataset, the article examines how the involvement of autocratic states as mediators is associated with negotiation outcomes across different phases of the peace process. Unlike many existing datasets that operate at the conflict-year level and do not systematically distinguish between stages of peacemaking, the Peace Observatory records the specific phase of each negotiation round – prenegotiation, negotiation, or implementation. This enables analysis of whether mediator characteristics matter differently at distinct stages of the process. The analysis shows that autocratic involvement is positively associated with the conclusion of peace agreements during the negotiation phase, but not in the prenegotiation or implementation phase.