Pre-registered protocol and predictions of campaign B4: "When the Monitor Fails Too"

Abstract

Pre-registered protocol and predictions of campaign B4 of the paper "When the Monitor Fails Too". The registered file PROTOCOL_B4.md (SHA-256 04d3acfa5f2f3c2e6c81988b231c98950e09b3813dcd4c95f9205b51ac7b9fca, MD5 1ff770bd18ca8fc9e842cb53c7d99fd1, 19,426 bytes) fixes, before the main campaign: the host, the frozen code with the SHA-256 of k8s_b4.py, b4_truth.py and b4_analysis.py, the twelve incident classes and their weights, the error bounds, the ground-truth rules from the state timeline, the main seed B4-20261016 with n = 300, the six methods, and predictions H1 to H12 with their analysis. Section 11 records the pilot of 16 Oct 2026 and the changes it led to. Registered on Zenodo because OSF was closed for maintenance on 16-19 Oct 2026; the introduction of the file, written before that closure, still names OSF as the registry. Correction (16 Oct 2026, before the main campaign): the first text of this description quoted SHA-256 384fe368938d552e598733db404f8b3e853688cf3cd2517a302238b08bc6f200, which is the author's working copy; it differs from the uploaded file only in the one sentence of the introduction that names the registry. The uploaded file is the registered protocol.